Keandalan Sistem Tenaga Listrik

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1. Buatlah Tabel COPT untuk sistem pembangkitan dengan 25 generator (menggunakan software Matlab), dengan rincian sebagai berikut:

5 generator dengan kapasitas 10 MW dengan FOR 0.01

5 generator dengan kapasitas 20 MW dengan FOR 0.02

10 generator dengan kapasitas 15 MW dengan FOR 0.015

5 generator dengan Kapasistas 25 MW dengan FOR 0.01

Berikut ini source code program matlab

clc
close all
clear all
tic
%% Program untuk mencari tabel probabilitas untuk generator-generator dengan 2 state
%%
Input=[
1 0 10 0.99 0.01
2 0 10 0.99 0.01
3 0 10 0.99 0.01
4 0 10 0.99 0.01
5 0 10 0.99 0.01
6 0 20 0.98 0.02
7 0 20 0.98 0.02
8 0 20 0.98 0.02
9 0 20 0.98 0.02
10 0 20 0.98 0.02
11 0 15 0.985 0.015
12 0 15 0.985 0.015
13 0 15 0.985 0.015
14 0 15 0.985 0.015
15 0 15 0.985 0.015
16 0 15 0.985 0.015
17 0 15 0.985 0.015
18 0 15 0.985 0.015
19 0 15 0.985 0.015
20 0 15 0.985 0.015
21 0 25 0.99 0.01
22 0 25 0.99 0.01
23 0 25 0.99 0.01
24 0 25 0.99 0.01
25 0 25 0.99 0.01
];
%%
fprintf(‘=====================================================\n’)
fprintf(‘cap in cap out individual cummulative\n’)
fprintf(‘ MW MW probability probability\n’)
fprintf(‘=====================================================\n’)
%% Variable
format long
stategen=Input(:,1:3);
avgen=[Input(:,1) Input(:,4) Input(:,5)];
nogen=length(Input(:,1));
novar=length(stategen(1,:))-1;
%%
state=[];
gencum=0;
%%
for k=1:nogen
%% first iteration
nostate=length(state);
if nostate==0
state=stategen(k,2:3);
prob=avgen(k,2:3);
else
%% next iteration
a=0;
for l=1:novar
for m=1:nostate
a=a+1;
statenew(a)=stategen(k,l+1)+state(m);
probnew(a)=avgen(k,l+1)*prob(m);
end
end
genstate=unique(statenew);
nogenstate=length(genstate);
probx=zeros(1,nogenstate);
for m=1:a
for l=1:nogenstate
if genstate(l)==statenew(m)
probx(l)=probx(l)+probnew(m);
end
end
end
state=genstate;
prob=probx;
gencum=0;
for k=1:nogenstate
l=nogenstate+1-k;
gencum=gencum+prob(l);
cum(l)=gencum;
end
end
end
maxstate = max(state);
lhstate = length(state);
Kap = maxstate*ones(lhstate,1);
gencopt=[Kap-transpose(state) transpose(state) transpose(prob) transpose(cum)]

Tabel COPT dengan hasil run program 

============================================================================

cap in                                      cap out                         individual               cummulative

 MW                                            MW                          probability                probability

===========================================================================

gencopt =

  1.0e+002 *

   4.250000000000000                              0                     0.007028208379396   0.010000000000000

   4.150000000000000   0.100000000000000   0.000354960019161   0.002971791620604

   4.100000000000000   0.150000000000000   0.001070285540010   0.002616831601442

   4.050000000000000   0.200000000000000   0.000724335029825   0.001546546061433

   4.000000000000000   0.250000000000000   0.000409014844414   0.000822211031608

   3.950000000000000   0.300000000000000   0.000109637284107   0.000413196187194

   3.900000000000000   0.350000000000000   0.000128232100572   0.000303558903087

   3.850000000000000   0.400000000000000   0.000087763186122   0.000175326802515

   3.800000000000000   0.450000000000000   0.000045087860669   0.000087563616393

   3.750000000000000   0.500000000000000   0.000018945687367   0.000042475755724

   3.700000000000000   0.550000000000000   0.000010256815268   0.000023530068357

   3.650000000000000   0.600000000000000   0.000007018526669   0.000013273253089

   3.600000000000000   0.650000000000000   0.000003327682295   0.000006254726420

   3.550000000000000   0.700000000000000   0.000001516197890   0.000002927044126

   3.500000000000000   0.750000000000000   0.000000696748172   0.000001410846235

   3.450000000000000   0.800000000000000   0.000000380618391   0.000000714098063

   3.400000000000000   0.850000000000000   0.000000188450438   0.000000333479673

   3.350000000000000   0.900000000000000   0.000000079642271   0.000000145029234

   3.300000000000000   0.950000000000000   0.000000035498894   0.000000065386963

   3.250000000000000   1.000000000000000   0.000000016514851   0.000000029888069

   3.200000000000000   1.050000000000000   0.000000007801620   0.000000013373218

   3.150000000000000   1.100000000000000   0.000000003232981   0.000000005571598

   3.100000000000000   1.150000000000000   0.000000001339125   0.000000002338617

   3.050000000000000   1.200000000000000   0.000000000581429   0.000000000999492

   3.000000000000000   1.250000000000000   0.000000000249568   0.000000000418063

   2.950000000000000   1.300000000000000   0.000000000102332   0.000000000168494

   2.900000000000000   1.350000000000000   0.000000000039560   0.000000000066162

   2.850000000000000   1.400000000000000   0.000000000016097   0.000000000026602

   2.800000000000000   1.450000000000000   0.000000000006488   0.000000000010504

   2.750000000000000   1.500000000000000   0.000000000002513   0.000000000004016

   2.700000000000000   1.550000000000000   0.000000000000938   0.000000000001504

   2.650000000000000   1.600000000000000   0.000000000000353   0.000000000000566

   2.600000000000000   1.650000000000000   0.000000000000136   0.000000000000212

   2.550000000000000   1.700000000000000   0.000000000000049   0.000000000000077

   2.500000000000000   1.750000000000000   0.000000000000018   0.000000000000027

   2.450000000000000   1.800000000000000   0.000000000000006   0.000000000000010

   2.400000000000000   1.850000000000000   0.000000000000002   0.000000000000003

   2.350000000000000   1.900000000000000   0.000000000000001   0.000000000000001

   2.300000000000000   1.950000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   2.250000000000000   2.000000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   2.200000000000000   2.050000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   2.150000000000000   2.100000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   2.100000000000000   2.150000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   2.050000000000000   2.200000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   2.000000000000000   2.250000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.950000000000000   2.300000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.900000000000000   2.350000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.850000000000000   2.400000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.800000000000000   2.450000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.750000000000000   2.500000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.700000000000000   2.550000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.650000000000000   2.600000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.600000000000000   2.650000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.550000000000000   2.700000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.500000000000000   2.750000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.450000000000000   2.800000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.400000000000000   2.850000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.350000000000000   2.900000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.300000000000000   2.950000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.250000000000000   3.000000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.200000000000000   3.050000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.150000000000000   3.100000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.100000000000000   3.150000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.050000000000000   3.200000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   1.000000000000000   3.250000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.950000000000000   3.300000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.900000000000000   3.350000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.850000000000000   3.400000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.800000000000000   3.450000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.750000000000000   3.500000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.700000000000000   3.550000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.650000000000000   3.600000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.600000000000000   3.650000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.550000000000000   3.700000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.500000000000000   3.750000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.450000000000000   3.800000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.400000000000000   3.850000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.350000000000000   3.900000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.300000000000000   3.950000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.250000000000000   4.000000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.200000000000000   4.050000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.150000000000000   4.100000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

   0.100000000000000   4.150000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

                         0                           4.250000000000000   0.000000000000000   0.000000000000000

2. Tentukan resiko dari sistem tersebut apabila beban puncaknya sebesar 

 a. 300 MW

3.050000000000000   1.200000000000000   0.000000000581429   0.000000000999492

   3.000000000000000   1.250000000000000   0.000000000249568   0.000000000418063

   2.950000000000000   1.300000000000000   0.000000000102332   0.000000000168494

   2.900000000000000   1.350000000000000   0.000000000039560   0.000000000066162

b. 350 MW

 3.550000000000000   0.700000000000000   0.000001516197890   0.000002927044126

   3.500000000000000   0.750000000000000   0.000000696748172   0.000001410846235

   3.450000000000000   0.800000000000000   0.000000380618391   0.000000714098063

   3.400000000000000   0.850000000000000   0.000000188450438   0.000000333479673

 c. 400 MW

    4.050000000000000   0.200000000000000   0.000724335029825   0.001546546061433

   4.000000000000000   0.250000000000000   0.000409014844414   0.000822211031608

   3.950000000000000   0.300000000000000   0.000109637284107   0.000413196187194

   3.900000000000000   0.350000000000000   0.000128232100572   0.000303558903087

 3. Sebuah Jaringan Distribusi memiliki Komposisi Feeder sebagai berikut

Data Gangguan Suatu Jaringan Distribusi

 

Titik beban Feeder

Jumlah Pelanggan

Rata-rata Beban

1

1000

5000

2

800

4000

3

600

3000

4

400

2000

5

200

1000

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Tugas Mata Kuliah Aplikasi Komputer dalam Sistem Tenaga Listrik JTETi UGM